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TRUMP is again – landslide victory is anticipated
By Christian Takushi, Economist – Switzerland, 6 Nov 2024 (delayed & truncated public launch on 8 Nov 2024)
The American folks have spoken and so they have given former President Donal J. Trump a large mandate for change. Now we have witnessed one of the crucial exceptional political comebacks in fashionable historical past.
Like in 2016 we had been led to anticipate a Trump victory in 2024 – this time we even went so far as to foresee a crimson sweep over the three branches (president, senate and home of representatives). I didn’t anticipate Trump to win the favored vote this overwhelmingly although.
These of you that comply with our analysis studies since 2015 know that I don’t wish to make sensationalist statements nor flashy forecasts. I put extra significance on evaluation than forecasts. Why? An avalanche of forecasts and knowledge is a part of our downside on the planet right now. There are just too many forecasts, usually pushed by activism, however few strong rationales or evaluation to again them up. I’m additionally usually reserved with sharing my forecasts, as a result of I don’t wish to develop into standard, simply because we bought a couple of vital occasions proper up to now. It’s the evaluation what issues! I see our monitor file as God’s grace to us and that we nonetheless must give attention to ahead wanting evaluation.
The results of this election cycle can be one of the crucial upsetting occasions in world politics of the previous 80 years – of this I’m positive. It’s prone to have a large impression on the macroeconomic panorama and the political course of. The massive wars we’ve got additionally predicted up to now ten years for Europe and the Center East is not going to be averted – they’re prone to be delayed.
Nonetheless I’d wish to share what unfolded over the previous two weeks with you – I believe it tells so much about what’s going on proper now.
In latest months – at conferences and seminars – I’ve been saying how I anticipated these elections to unfold. Then as soon as once more the CFA Institute requested me to share my evaluation and prediction for the US elections earlier than Election Day.
This has develop into slightly custom that honours us, as a result of it reveals essentially the most influential establishment for funding professionals worldwide appreciates our evaluation and our skill to speak a couple of extremely charged advanced matter in a balanced manner with out private biases. I used that public CFA webinar to make our forecast public: a Trump win, based mostly on all out there info.
At that CFA Seminar of October twenty third I acknowledged that we expect President Trump to win the elections. Yesterday, a CFA official that participated on the latest convention requested me if I used to be nonetheless sticking to my prediction.
My reply:
” .. Now it comes all the way down to who does present as much as vote right now. So, some would say “something is feasible now”. However barring any surprises and if I’d comply with my instincts and expertise, Trump nonetheless takes this. The Senate and Home had been in play as properly “
The crimson sweep we’ve got been cautiously anticipating is right here.
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Outcomes as we write this:
Trump is successful the race for US President and the GOP has secured Senate (extra solidly than we anticipated although). The GOP is on monitor to carry the Home as properly.
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We have to pause and mirror
I believe it will be significant for buyers and enterprise leaders to grasp how this end result got here to be. They should perceive how the world is altering – This can be a sturdy mandate.
America below Trump can be robust for allies and foes alike.
As I’ve mentioned for months .. I’m anxious about Europe. Our leaders have mocked, despised and insulted Trump all the way in which, even in latest months and days. Unusual our leaders didn’t tone down their rhetoric earlier. Europe ought to adapt in self curiosity – America doesn’t really want us. As I’ve mentioned Europe is in for a really robust 4 years.
Europe is weak and caught in a large strategic entice .. so our leaders must be placing our financial pursuits first now.
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Right here the CFA Society occasion on US elections
https://www.youtube.com/embed/MGrPjkYBfwE
Vital observe
Let’s give due to God that the US elections appear to have unfolded safely and with none main disruptions.
This peace and lack of violence shouldn’t be taken with no consideration.
Geopolitical Analysis Group – 6 Nov 2024
data@geopoliticalresearch.com
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Disclaimer: No info or remark must be construed as funding recommendation.
International Geopolitical Analysis
Analysis made in Switzerland
Geopolitical and financial situations want shut monitoring, as a result of they will change all of a sudden.
No a part of this evaluation must be taken or construed as an funding suggestion.
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