India’s prime telecom operators—Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Thought (Vi)—are anticipated to announce one other spherical of tariff hikes by November–December 2025, as a part of a broader “tariff restore” technique geared toward boosting income and ARPU (Common Income Per Consumer), international brokerage Bernstein stated in a current word.
The brokerage tasks ARPU ranges to rise to Rs 300 by FY27, pushed by continued tariff will increase, smartphone upgrades, and knowledge monetisation, the Financial Instances reported. The most recent hike — applied in July 2024 — raised headline charges by 20–25%, and its full impression remains to be taking part in out in operator earnings.
Rahul Mathur, Pre-Seed Investor at DeVC_India, in a publish on X, famous over the previous 5 years, the price of cellular knowledge in India has steadily climbed, and telco financials make that development crystal clear. The important thing indicator? ARPU (Common Income Per Consumer)—a metric that exhibits how a lot a telecom firm earns per buyer—has surged considerably throughout the board.
For instance, Jio’s ARPU has almost doubled, rising between 50% to 96% since 2019. This implies a typical Jio person at present is paying near twice as a lot for cellular companies as they did 5 years in the past. Whereas this bounce comes with enhancements in service high quality, velocity, and protection, it additionally marks a shift from the period of ultra-cheap knowledge that when drove India’s digital growth.
All main gamers — Jio, Airtel, and Vi — have seen ARPU progress pushed by tariff hikes, premium plan adoption, and elevated knowledge consumption. As networks roll out 5G and push towards profitability, this upward development is prone to proceed.
“Knowledge in India is affordable. However it’s slowing getting costlier – Telco financials share this actual story: Approx. 50% to 96% in ARPU over the previous 5 years i.e. for a typical Jio buyer, they’re paying nearly x2 what they did 5 years in the past (after all, higher service and so on),” Mathur stated.
Q3 ARPU
Throughout the third quarter of FY25, Reliance Jio’s common income per person (ARPU) surpassed the Rs 200 mark, reaching Rs 203.3. This marks vital progress for the telecom operator, particularly contemplating that the ARPU was hovering round Rs 180 earlier than the tariff hikes have been applied.
Bharti Airtel achieved a formidable ARPU of Rs 245 throughout Q3 FY25, making it the best amongst all telcos within the Indian telecom business by a considerable margin. Comparatively, Airtel’s ARPU was Rs 208 in the identical quarter final 12 months.
Vodafone Thought reported an ARPU of Rs 173 in Q3 FY25, up from Rs 166 within the earlier quarter. The corporate has proven regular progress in ARPU for the reason that tariff changes.
Bernstein forecasts
Bernstein forecasts mid-to-high teen income progress for Airtel and Jio from 2025–2027, with subscriber additions and ARPU progress as key drivers. Airtel can be anticipated to enhance its financials considerably, with free money circulation rising and internet debt-to-EBITDA dropping to ~0.9x by FY27. Its ROCE might attain ~18%.
In the meantime, Vi acquired aid after the federal government agreed to transform ₹36,950 crore of its spectrum dues into fairness, elevating its stake to 49%. This transfer, analysts say, highlights the federal government’s dedication to sustaining a three-player market, which bodes properly for worth self-discipline and future tariff stability.
Bernstein concludes that Airtel is finest positioned within the telecom sector with robust steadiness sheet fundamentals, rising ARPU, and bettering capital effectivity—outperforming each the Nifty and Asian friends in 2024 thus far.
