Myanmar’s Enduring Polycrisis: 4 Years right into a Tumultuous Journey, launched on Wednesday, factors to the grim image of a nation in freefall, with practically half the inhabitants residing under the poverty line, important providers crumbling and the financial system in disarray.
With no political decision in sight, the disaster is predicted to worsen within the coming 12 months.
“The approaching 12 months will check Myanmar’s resilience to its limits,” the report warns, calling for pressing worldwide engagement to mitigate additional struggling and stop whole collapse.
“A extra steady and peaceable Myanmar that thrives on a authorized financial system, protects it human and pure useful resource belongings and invests within the security and prosperity of all its folks can also be within the self-interest of its neighbours and the worldwide group writ giant,” it added.
Myanmar’s financial system has sharply declined since 2021.
Black market growth
Since 2020, Myanmar’s gross home product (GDP) has contracted by 9 per cent, reversing the financial progress of the earlier decade.
Inflation reached 25.4 per cent reached in 2024, additional eroding family buying energy. The commerce deficit ballooned to 2.2 per cent of GDP, exacerbated by extreme restrictions on cross-border commerce, and the forex plummeted over 1,330 kyat per US greenback in 2021 to 4,520 in 2025, making imports unaffordable and sending costs hovering.
The financial scenario worsened additional because the nation was blacklisted by the Monetary Motion Job Drive (FATF) for failing to fight cash laundering and terrorist financing.
Towards this backdrop, Myanmar’s illicit financial system is prospering and it has develop into the world’s main producer of opium and heroin, and one of many largest producers of methamphetamines.
The jade business, valued at billions of {dollars} yearly, stays largely unregulated, fuelling corruption and environmental degradation. Unlawful playing, human trafficking, and rip-off operations have flourished alongside the nation’s porous borders.
Society in disaster
Myanmar’s ongoing battle has displaced greater than 3.5 million folks inside the nation and pushed many extra throughout its borders. Internally displaced individuals (IDPs) lack important help and protections, and host communities are reeling below the strained sources.
Starvation is reaching catastrophic ranges and agricultural productiveness has declined by 16 per cent since 2021, largely as a result of battle and climate-related disasters.
Fertilizer shortages, skyrocketing gas costs, and commerce disruptions have pushed the value of the staple rice up by 47 per cent in some areas. The western state of Rakhine is especially susceptible, with meals manufacturing projected to fulfill solely 20 per cent of native wants by mid-2025, elevating fears of famine-like situations.
Public providers are additionally severely affected, with over half of the nation missing entry to electrical energy and hospitals out of service in battle zones.
Looming mind drain
The dire financial and safety scenario has led to an exodus of Myanmar’s youth, with 3.7 million having migrated to Thailand by 2023. Many face exploitation and compelled labour as a result of restrictive authorized migration pathways, whereas those that stay are vulnerable to compelled conscription into the navy.
Faculty enrolment charges have additionally dropped considerably as entry to instructional services has been disrupted by battle and financial hardships. Within the 2023/2024 tutorial 12 months, over 20 per cent of youngsters weren’t attending college.
Disaster or alternative?
The outlook for Myanmar stays precarious. If present developments proceed, poverty will rise additional, migration will intensify and the nation’s fragile financial system will wrestle below the burden of continued battle and worldwide isolation, the report warns.
Regardless of Myanmar’s deepening disaster, alternatives for restoration exist.
The report highlights the resilience of native communities and the potential of civil society organizations in rebuilding social cohesion. Partaking the diaspora via schooling and expertise improvement might assist retain and appeal to expertise, whereas increasing alternatives for girls in enterprise and employment might enhance family incomes.
Agricultural revitalisation, via climate-resilient crops and irrigation, is essential for meals safety, whereas funding in environmental safety – corresponding to reforestation and mangrove restoration – might safeguard jobs sooner or later.
