Industrial and manufacturing manufacturing out right this moment, retail gross sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2% and 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, respectively) however retail gross sales stay noticeably down from prior peak.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (daring blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark by December (skinny blue), civilian employment as reported (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring mild inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q4 advance launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (3/3/2025 launch), and creator’s calculations.
Determine 2: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed inhabitants controls (daring orange), manufacturing manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), actual retail gross sales (black), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Federal Reserve through FRED, BEA 2024Q4 2nd launch, and creator’s calculations.
Nowcasts (GDPNow as reported and accounting for gold imports; NY Fed) and monitoring (Goldman Sachs) as of right this moment.
Determine 3: GDP (black), GDPNow (crimson triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, utilizing Atlanta Fed adjustment for March 7 utilized to March 17 (pink sq.), NY Fed (blue sq.), Goldman Sachs (inverted inexperienced triangle), Survey of Skilled Forecasters (mild blue), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs and authors calculations.
Q1 GDPNow, accounting for gold imports, stays primarily flat…
Industrial and manufacturing manufacturing out right this moment, retail gross sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2% and 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, respectively) however retail gross sales stay noticeably down from prior peak.
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (daring blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark by December (skinny blue), civilian employment as reported (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring mild inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q4 advance launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (3/3/2025 launch), and creator’s calculations.
Determine 2: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed inhabitants controls (daring orange), manufacturing manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), actual retail gross sales (black), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Federal Reserve through FRED, BEA 2024Q4 2nd launch, and creator’s calculations.
Nowcasts (GDPNow as reported and accounting for gold imports; NY Fed) and monitoring (Goldman Sachs) as of right this moment.
Determine 3: GDP (black), GDPNow (crimson triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, utilizing Atlanta Fed adjustment for March 7 utilized to March 17 (pink sq.), NY Fed (blue sq.), Goldman Sachs (inverted inexperienced triangle), Survey of Skilled Forecasters (mild blue), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs and authors calculations.
Q1 GDPNow, accounting for gold imports, stays primarily flat…
